11 million Americans could be forced to change careers because of AI.
A new McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that 11 million U.S. workers may need to move into different occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence and automation reshape demand for labor.
That means learning a new kind of work, after years spent building experience in another field.
The figure is a projection, not a count of announced layoffs. Depending on how quickly automation spreads and affects demand, McKinsey’s estimate ranges from six million to 16 million workers.
The report also projects that the economy could have more jobs in 2035 than it does today.
Its scenario estimates that automation could reduce demand for work equivalent to about 36 million jobs, while growth in AI-related industries and the broader economy could generate demand for roughly 40 million.
For around 25 million affected workers, growth within their occupations could offset automation’s impact. The remaining 11 million may need to enter a different occupation altogether.
Having enough jobs overall does not guarantee that someone whose role disappears can immediately step into one of them.
New openings may require different skills, qualifications or experience. Workers may need time, training and financial support to make the transition.
Timing also matters. If automation reduces demand before new opportunities appear, people can face unemployment even when the longer-term outlook shows more jobs.
These changes would unfold alongside an aging population, retirements and slower immigration, which are also changing the available workforce.
The warning arrives during a sluggish hiring market. CNN reports that workers are increasingly anxious about job security and their ability to find another position.
The outcome will depend on business decisions, the pace of AI adoption and how effectively employers and educators help people prepare for different work.
Learn more:
“Workforce in motion: Skills and pathways to future jobs in the United States.” McKinsey Global Institute